Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $640,441$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(2.05 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{654,601.1}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 123.1)}}\) (asimptote \(654,601.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $15,086$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(364 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,784.7}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 123.6)}}\) (asimptote \(17,784.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $57,626$ on 2020-09-08

Cabo Verde⮸

Population $555,987$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,400$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(147 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,533.9}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 139.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,533.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $42$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(1.68 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{51.7}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 129.5)}}\) (asimptote \(51.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $507$ on 2020-09-08

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,388$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(1.23 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(69.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,280.0}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 68.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,280.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $61$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(14.1 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59.0}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 58.3)}}\) (asimptote \(59.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $0$ on 2020-09-08

Equatorial Guinea⮸

Population $1,402,985$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,985$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(384 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,696.8}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 114.1)}}\) (asimptote \(5,696.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $83$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(10.8 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{90.9}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 77.9)}}\) (asimptote \(90.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $448$ on 2020-09-08

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $100,228$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(1.11 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{99,694.8}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 96.4)}}\) (asimptote \(99,694.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,560$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(518 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,605.5}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 99.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,605.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $14,782$ on 2020-09-08

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,292$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(1.27 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,000.5}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 89.8)}}\) (asimptote \(10,000.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $260$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(33.3 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{270.3}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 94.8)}}\) (asimptote \(270.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $531$ on 2020-09-08

Libya⮸

Population $6,871,292$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $19,583$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(18.5 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47,783.0}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 171.9)}}\) (asimptote \(47,783.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $314$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(1.13 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{611.4}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 161.0)}}\) (asimptote \(611.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $17,022$ on 2020-09-08

Morocco⮸

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $75,721$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(739 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.3\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,427$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(16 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.8\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $17,055$ on 2020-09-08

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Chad recovered 90%
Mauritania recovered 89%
Cote d'Ivoire recovered 84%
Egypt recovered 73%
South Africa recovered 67%
Malawi recovered 21%

Chad⮸

Population $16,425,864$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,045$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(369 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(86.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{927.2}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 35.7)}}\) (asimptote \(927.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $79$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(46.8 \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(144.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{74.7}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 15.7)}}\) (asimptote \(74.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $39$ on 2020-09-08

Mauritania⮸

Population $4,649,658$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,165$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(653 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,813.3}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 90.1)}}\) (asimptote \(6,813.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $160$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(23.7 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{156.7}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 76.9)}}\) (asimptote \(156.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $324$ on 2020-09-08

Cote d'Ivoire⮸

Population $26,378,274$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $18,778$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(1.74 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{18,678.0}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 98.2)}}\) (asimptote \(18,678.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $119$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(18.5 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{127.5}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 84.1)}}\) (asimptote \(127.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $971$ on 2020-09-08

Malawi⮸

Population $19,129,952$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,630$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(359 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,878.4}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 89.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,878.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $176$ on 2020-09-08

Best fit exponential: \(4.74 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{178.9}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 106.5)}}\) (asimptote \(178.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,824$ on 2020-09-08