Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $640,441$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(2.05 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{654,601.1}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 123.1)}}\) (asimptote \(654,601.1\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $15,086$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(364 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,784.7}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 123.6)}}\) (asimptote \(17,784.7\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $57,626$ on 2020-09-08
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,400$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(147 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,533.9}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 139.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,533.9\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $42$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.68 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{51.7}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 129.5)}}\) (asimptote \(51.7\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $507$ on 2020-09-08
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,388$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.23 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(69.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,280.0}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 68.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,280.0\))
Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $61$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(14.1 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59.0}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 58.3)}}\) (asimptote \(59.0\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $0$ on 2020-09-08
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,985$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(384 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,696.8}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 114.1)}}\) (asimptote \(5,696.8\))
Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $83$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(10.8 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{90.9}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 77.9)}}\) (asimptote \(90.9\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $448$ on 2020-09-08
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $100,228$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.11 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{99,694.8}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 96.4)}}\) (asimptote \(99,694.8\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,560$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(518 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,605.5}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 99.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,605.5\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $14,782$ on 2020-09-08
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $10,292$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.27 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,000.5}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 89.8)}}\) (asimptote \(10,000.5\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $260$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(33.3 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{270.3}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 94.8)}}\) (asimptote \(270.3\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $531$ on 2020-09-08
Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $19,583$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(18.5 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47,783.0}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 171.9)}}\) (asimptote \(47,783.0\))
Start date 2020-04-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $314$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.13 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{611.4}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 161.0)}}\) (asimptote \(611.4\))
Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $17,022$ on 2020-09-08
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $75,721$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(739 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.3\) days)
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,427$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(16 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.8\) days)
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $17,055$ on 2020-09-08